Monday, June 18, 2007

Do the polls really tell us anything?

With so much intense polling a year and a half prior to the next Presidential
election, and barely 6 months after the new Congress was sworn in, it's becoming rather frustrating to watch the Media annoit or write-off candidates and Congress.

Perhaps some of the problem is lack of history/civics courses in schools, as it
would appear an awful lot of people being polled plain don't understand how Congress and, more particularly, the Senate works.

My great hope with the 2006 election was a Democratic Congress, simply so no further damage could be done on a host of issues but, most importantly, our involvement in Iraq. With Bush still in the White House and a Senate split right down the middle, knowing full well at least 60 Senators are required to cut off debate on anything, the best outcome any of us who wanted change could hope for was status quo until about a year before the next election, which brings us to the end of 2007. At that point, if the Iraq situation remains as it has, certain Republican Senators, politically, will have no choice but to turn on the President.

By the fall, Tim Johnson will be back in the Senate, which will give the Dems 50 votes (including Sanders). Hagel's already with them. By my calculations, add Snowe, Collins, Spector, Smith, Sununu and Coleman. That's 57 votes. Wildcards are Warner, Craig, Domenici, Cochran, Stevens, Voinovich and Murkowski. If any 3 in this group flip, it's a new day.

Since it seems people either don't get it or somehow think change happens in days or weeks, maybe the Media could devote a bit more time to *educating* the masses. Novel thought, I know, but it would certainly be more useful than seeing polls which really aren't insightful, and don't reflect efforts being put forth by at least half of Congress to exact change.

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