Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Winding down to a perilous choice

Watching the election results last night was demoralizing for any Clinton supporter who held out hope that, somehow, she could win against Obama in states which are clearly republican strongholds and where, up until 2 weeks ago, she had no real shot at winning.

Pundits persisted in comparisons of Indiana with other states in the Rust Belt and this comparison simply cannot be made. The other industrial states are either Democratic strongholds or, at minimum, battleground states. Not Indiana, which is solidly Republican and, barring a complete Democratic thrashing, will be won by McCain in November. That Hillary managed to win here was pretty impressive.

Unfortunately, though a win is a win, at this stage, it's not enough, and not when Obama's performance in North Carolina negated her win in Pennsylvania. And as Jay Cost wrote at Real Clear Politics, Obama owes his win in NC almost entirely to the black vote.

And I suppose, that is my greatest concern and disappointment right now. I can totally appreciate that whether we're talking about blacks, hispanics, asians, catholics, jews, etc., a candidate coming from any of these groups will likely garner a disproportionate share of those votes simply because he/she is "one of us".

Bill Clinton is not the primary reason why Barack Obama is now claiming almost every black vote. He's doing it because he's captured the Liberals and kids in large enough numbers that blacks know with their vote, in its entirety, the result appears to be just enough to win the Democratic nomination, discounting elections which occured in Michigan and Florida.

Though Obama hasn't demonstrated an ability to change anything, the kids believe it. Fair enough and, for this moment, they are invigorated. Liberals are motivated by their contempt of the Clintons and Obama's anti-war stance. The former is somewhat irrational and the latter requires more discussion, but I can go along with this group too. At least kids and liberals have and are giving Clinton a fair shake and she wins some of their votes.

Sadly, almost all blacks are now voting for Obama simply because he is black, and this isn't acceptable for a candidate who is allegedly attempting to transcend everything and bring people together. Further, to cast off Clinton in the way they have, when she has spent her entire adult life advocating for the least fortunate and pressing issues which benefit blacks in large measure, is appalling. In this respect, I feel incredibly sorry for her and can only begin to imagine her feelings on this mindless repudiation.

A year ago, there was so much excitement about the slate of Democratic candidates and their chances this November. After my first and second choices were knocked out, I settled on Hillary. Up until a few weeks ago, I resigned myself to support the democratic nominee regardless. But, you know, you can only give so much, when experience, issues and ability to get real things done are your primary calculus in this decision making process.

Today, other than knowing with certainty I will not support McCain, Obama has a
very steep mountain to climb before I would consider a vote for him.

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