Specter Will Jump Republican Ship to Save Himself

A new Quinnipiac Poll out today has Club for Growth President Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter in a Pennsylvania Republican Primary match-up by 14 points with a ridiculous 28% of Republican primary voters undecided. I say ridiculous because everyone in the state, party notwithstanding, knows Arlen Specter and, honestly, knows right now whether they will support him in a primary vote or not, regardless of what these voters are telling pollsters.

What these early numbers tell us is Arlen Specter is in a heap of trouble with Pennsylvania's Republican voters, who never much liked him from the get-go, and he'll lose a 1 on 1 primary battle with Toomey. An even more right-wing nutcase, Peg Lusik, is also planning to jump into this primary on the Republican ticket which would be Specter's only shot at pulling out a primary victory, with Lusik and Toomey splitting the "Alabama" votes between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Such a scenario is hardly guaranteed and Specter could go down regardless because of his overall weak support among the Republicans left in the Keystone state.

Personally, I'd rather see Arlen Specter retire. If he runs as a Republican, he will lose the primary and the Democrats will claim this Senate seat in 2010. Politically, he could do now, a year in advance, what he should have done 8 years ago and bolt the Republican party, caucus with the Democrats, and sail to reelection in 2010.

If Arlen Specter flips now, the Democrats will FINALLY have their filibuster proof 60 votes in the Senate, once Al Franken is seated from Minnesota, which would guarantee massive support for his reelection from National Democrats. Further, the AFL-CIO has already told Specter, a longtime ally, that they will back him 100% if he switches parties. I suspect Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy may even allow Specter to co-chair this all important committee, an historic event by any measure.

Specter's choice is clear ... sink with the Republicans or swim with the Democrats. My money says he'll grab the life preserver.