Friday, December 30, 2011

And the Iowa Caucus Winner is?

If it's January in Iowa, temperatures should be in the teens and worse, but next Tuesday should be almost balmy with temperatures pushing 40 degrees. Not expecting a record breaking turnout, but it should be a very good showing by Hawkeye standards, which reduces the chances of a marginal candidate with many young supporters pulling an upset.

Of the various GOP candidates who have polled Nationally above 3% throughout this contest, only 1 has never surged or tanked. He's the same candidate who can't break through 30% support, but hasn't fallen below 20% either. He lacks rhythm and has no pizzazz, but he's consistent, and that's all it's going to take for Mitt Romney to win the Iowa Caucus.

In at second is the fringe candidate who is in the midst of a surge and will never completely deflate because of a diehard base of supporters. Ron Paul has the right combination of boots on the ground and ad placements to score a close second to Romney. After this result, Paul will be under relentless attack but more on that when we get to New Hampshire.

In third place, it will be Rick Santorum, who's literally been on an upward trajectory for only a week, but it doesn't matter with the boom/bust mentality of GOP Primary voters. The Social Conservatives are still desperately searching for an alternative to Romney and will raise up anyone they believe is one of them, until they realize the person is unelectable, whereby said candidate is left to fall away. For next Tuesday, Santorum will be saved.

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